03
Jan
12

Is the US Government Manipulating Statistics?

With the releasing of Economic Indicators by the US Government, there seems to be many revisions that make the current number look alot better than it actually is. Let’s take the following examples made over the past couple of months to see the impact:

The numbers for Construction Spending released on January 3, 2012 for the previous period was revised from +0.8% to -0.2% showing the latest at +1.2%. The number would have been -0.9% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

The numbers for Existing home sales released on December 21, 2011 for the previous period was revised from 4.97M to 4.25M.

The numbers for Factory Orders released on December 5, 2011 for the previous period was revised from +0.3% to -0.1% showing the latest at -0.4%. The number would have been -0.8% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

The numbers for New home sales released on November 28, 2011 for the previous period was revised from 313K to 303K.

The numbers for Durable Orders released on November 23, 2011 for the previous period was revised from -0.6% to -1.5% showing the latest at -0.7%. The number would have been -1.6% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

The numbers for Wholesale Inventories released on November 9, 2011 for the previous period was revised from +0.4% to +0.1% showing the latest at -0.1%. The number would have been -0.4% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

The numbers for FHFA Housing Price Index released on October 25, 2011 for the previous period was revised from +0.8% to +0.0% showing the latest at -0.1%. The number would have been -0.9% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

The numbers for Industrial Production released on October 17, 2011 for the previous period was revised from +0.2% to +0.0% showing the latest at +0.2%. The number would have been 0% for the latest period had it not been for the revision.

With the actual results (excluding the previous revisions) well below analyst estimates for the latest periods, what better way to make the economy look better than it is actually doing by beating analysts estimates each time? And what better way to do so via the US Government lying and manipulating the statistics each time? When mathematics are a weakness of the many out there, how would they know?

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